USDJPY Currency Pair 4th – 8th Feb, 2019: Today we are going to look at the USDJPY pair and we are going to show analysis on a different timeframe, the Monthly. Remember in our price action course we emphasize the TOP DOWN APPROACH when analyzing the market. If we spot candlestick formations in the monthly, this provide a higher probability trade setup than the lower timeframe.

Now we may notice the main trend is up and the currency has been trapped in consolidation in form of a symmetrical triangle.

The pair has recently hit a zone of a support and we a monthly pin bar forming in that zone.

Summary

Will the bullish trend continue? Which direction will the pair break out of the consolidation? We will keep a keen eye on this pair amid confirmation of the direction this pair will head. As always we wait for the price to guide us on the investor sentiment.

ANALYSIS

The pair has been consolidating in a descending channel pattern. We see that the price has been making lower highs and we see a weakness in buyers. We see an aggressive move to the downside and the price is on the floor of the descending channel.

Will the sellers be strong enough to push the prices further down and or will this floor prevent further downside? I hope you note the candlestick formations highlighted in the green boxes. The price is talking but are you listening?

Our bias on this pair is neutral. We will wait to see how the price will react at this zone of support. Will the buyers ease the sellers’ pressure? As you know how we do it on FourthStreet Consultants we always let the price guide us on where the market is headed.

Today we are going to look at a recent topic we discussed in our first webinar the power of breakout trading. This pair had nice breakout trades that worked really well.

I want you to note how the market topped in the previous bullish trend. Can you identify the price pattern highlighted in yellow? Do you see the candlestick formation in the right top of the chart pattern? If not, feel free to visit www.fourthstreet.co.ke for more information on our Price Action Trading Course.

As you may observe we see a break of the red trendline in the fall of the GBPUSD and we see close outside the bear trendline. Next we see a peculiar candlestick formation that show indecision. Then a strong decision confirms the investor sentiment. What is the price telling you? What is there to say when the price does the talking?

Summary

Our bias on this pair is to stay alert and we will have a very close to see how the bulls will react as price is at a zone of resistance.

Analysis:

This pair has been on a clear uptrend. This pair has been trapped in broadening tops chart pattern and the price has attempted to break the channel but the bulls could not keep up with the momentum. We see the prices soon closed inside the pattern which shows the importance of waiting for candle to close.

This is a perfect example of how the buyers are trapped in the fake breakout.

The sellers have stepped in they are pushing the prices down the bottom of the channel.

Summary:

Our bias for this pair is bullish although we need to see a clear breakout on the channel to hint us that the investor sentiment has changed. The price will guide us on our position as the prices approach the near term support whether the bullish trend will continue or the seller will prevail.

Weekly Analysis

Hello guys,

This week we’ll be looking at the GBPJPY pair. We see that the pair has been on a downtrend for the most part. The main trend is bearish. Prices found a bottom and made some retracement. Then we see prices trading within a descending channel. At the most recent bottom of the descending channel, we see a hammer, signaling that there’s a high probability markets will reverse. They actually did reverse. Now at this point we have to wait for a clear breakout of the descending channel in order to have a clear signal of where the market will be headed.

Summary

Our bias is still bearish. The bulls have made a strong comeback by rejecting the prices moving lower and the confirmation by the bullish weeks.

A breakout outside the descending channel may show that the investors sentiment has changed and with the political drama of the Brexit we need to be careful trading this pair.

XAUUSD Currency Pair Analysis 

At the moment gold has rallied until the near term resistance. The pair has not broken the resistance level. At this level, price made indecision candles. Last week we see a pinbar which shows weakness in the uptrend. This week an indecision candle followed showing even further weakness in the uptrend. We wait for further price action to know whether the near term level will be broken and trend upwards and head to the major level, or reverse and we go bearish.  For a bearish move we will need further confirmation and for a bullish move we will need a break of the near term level.

SUMMARY

We will watch this currency pair closely and monitor how it behaves on this resistance zone. As usual the price will be our guide on how this precious commodity behaves at this zone.

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EURCHF Currency Pair Analysis

This pair has been making lower highs and lower lows so we are clearly in a downtrend.  The pair bottomed as it formed a tweezer bottom and here we see the prices momentarily pause and bounce off the support zone.

The pair struggled to get to the support area and then we see a weakness in the downtrend as the pair approaches the support area and we see a doji and a strong bullish day.

The bearish trend has shifted its momentum as the break of the trend line. As you can see the market has broken the near term trend line and the market is retesting the support area. Will the market continue the downtrend or the market will bounce back up?

Summary

The break of the bearish trend line shows that the momentum of the bear has shifted. Formation of the morning star at the support level may hint a change in the investor sentiment. We will watch this pair for further price action and let the price guide us to make further trading decisions.

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Analysis

This pair has been trending sideways since late 2016. The market price is at the bottom of the sideways channel and finally hitting the monthly and weekly support. The support area is breached by a huge bear shadow informing us that this is a false break of the support area.

A huge bullish comeback at the support area is expected and the price rallies on Friday.

Will bullish move be sustained?

 Of course we let the market to advise further as we continue speculating this currency pair

Summary: A huge bullish comeback at the support zone could indicate a change in investors’ sentiment. We will monitor this pair closely and we will let the price guide us on the direction of this pair in the coming days and weeks.

Analysis

This pair has been on bear market.  A huge tailed bar formed at the close of last week, hinting a false break of the minor support line, but finding its support at the major monthly resistance area. The bulls make a huge comeback to push the prices higher but will the momentum hold its ground?

Summary: The market has been bear-dominated, but we might see a change in sentiment if the support area is strong enough to reject the prices moving further downside. As always we let the price be our master and we be listening to hear what the market is telling us before we can take initiate any positions on the pair.

WEEKLY FX MARKET ANALYSIS NZDCAD 7TH – 11TH JANUARY, 2019

The major trend of the pair is bearish since we are making lower highs and lower lows. The last time we did analysis on this pair in November 2008, we saw a pin bar forming in a support-turn resistance zone. Furthermore, we see a descending price channel and the trendline has yet to be breached. A strong bearish force of the week has seen to the prices move much lower. Will the bears keep up with the momentum? As always the price is the king and we will wait for further price action to confirm the bears strength.

Summary: Although this currency pair has had a strong bull rally, the movement halted when a pin bar formed at the resistance area. A strong bear candle follows up in the first week of the year, an indication that this currency pair may have resumed the main bearish trend.