GBPJPY

We are going to look at the Pound Yen which is often referred to as the monster. It’s  notorious for causing many traders financial and emotional turmoil .Price has been rallying since December last year. Soon after we went into a consolidation period in the form of a descending triangle. On seeing this as price action traders, we must be rejoicing because a good trend will come out of this. Most traders don’t like it when price ranges. Yet we all know trends follow after ranging periods in the market.

SUMMARY.

A descending triangle breaks out below 7 times out of 10.This does not mean we should automatically sell the market. Patience is needed to join in, whichever side there is a breakout. Price will guide us whether we shall reverse the previous uptrend or continue with the bulls. Therefore we sit on our hands until we get a signal, following a breakout and confirmation.

AUDCAD

In this week’s analysis we are looking at the Australian dollar vs. the Lonnie. It is clear that since November of last year price was in a downtrend. Around February this year we had a rally within an ascending channel. Price usually consolidates in form of chart patterns. Safe to say the downtrend was our main trend and the uptrend(within the channel) is our minor trend .We had a breakout which closed below and a pullback ensued that was successful.

SUMMARY.

Once we broke out of the channel, our bias of any bullish momentum was nullified. There’s a high probability that we will continue with the bearish major trend. We now start looking for opportunities to short the market after a confirmation. Therefore let’s closely look on this pair to see whether we will continue with the falling prices.

GBPUSD

On this week’s analysis, we’ll be looking at the daily chart of pound dollar. Swiftly we can see price has been on an uptrend since December last year. Early this year, price topped twice at the major resistance level. A consolidation followed thereafter in the form of a descending triangle. Within the triangle it is visible that the line of least resistance is downwards. Therefore it is no surprise that price broke out and closed below the triangle. The most recent candle stick has an upper shadow, which is highly likely a pullback on the lower timeframes.

SUMMARY.

Evidence of a close below and a retest shifts our bias on this setup to be quite bearish. We closely monitor the pair to see how much further  the bear momentum will persist.

AUDCHF

We’re going to look at this analysis from the weekly timeframe. Price has been making a series of lower highs for the last 2 years. At the same time we see a series of higher lows from late last year consequently forming a symmetrical triangle. The triangle is still intact with no breakout in sight. However within it, there’s a double bottom that has broken out and closed above the neckline.

SUMMARY.

In order to trade the triangle, our rules suggest we wait for a breakout on either side of the pattern. The double bottom breakout may give us a reason to believe that a bull market is imminent. Nevertheless a breakout above the triangle will confirm this hunch. We may even see a pullback on the double bottom first before any further action. Hence we remain patient but vigilant for clear signals guided by a breakout to open positions.

AUDJPY

We are going to look at a follow up on this pair which we did during 25th-29th March. During the previous analysis, there was a triple top that was supported at the neckline which is labeled as the support level now. Bulls sustained the rally after the bounce off the support up until we got to the resistance zone. The second last candle stick was an inside bar and we can see what ensued after that. Finally we broke out of the consolidation by a huge bullish candle stick.

SUMMARY

Price has been ranging between these two levels, (call it a rectangle if you like) since the beginning of the year. Eventually a breakout has occurred and our bias becomes mainly bullish. We shall therefore be patient to see whether we shall experience a pullback as well or if bull power will sustain pushing price much higher.

XAUEUR

This week we are going to look at gold vs the Euro. Evidence of a trading confluence has been sited which should keep us on high alert as price action traders. Quickly looking to the left, we can see bulls were having a splendid time as they gradually rallied the price. A consolidation later followed in the form of two price patterns as advertised by the charts. Within a symmetrical triangle illustrated by the yellow trend lines, we see an almost picture perfect head and shoulder pattern. Both chart patterns have broken to the downside denoted by a close below the patterns by the breakout candle stick.

SUMMARY.

Bears exhibit an intention of taking price for a waterfall; this is evident by the break and close below the patterns. There might be a pullback towards the neckline/trend line to test the boundaries. If the boundaries hold this will give us an ideal and confirmed entry position after the retest. At this moment we wait for two things, a confirmation of the bear dominance by either another bearish candle or a retest. 

NZDUSD

This week we are going to follow up on the NZDUSD pair, mainly based on the weekly analysis we did back in mid-February.  The NZDUSD pair seems to have taken a ranging motion.  It no longer consolidates to form a symmetrical triangle but has been bouncing between the resistance and support level as captured on the chart.

SUMMARY.

Price is currently sitting at the support level and our take as price action traders is to wait for price to guide us, whether the bulls will have their way and take the pair up or will the support level will finally be broken giving way to further bearish momentum?

XAUUSD

From our previous weekly analysis of the Gold vs USD, price had been on a bullish trend which later was resisted on the formation of a pin bar. The bears further took over the market with a strong bearish candlestick. In the following three weeks as shown from the charts, the bulls resisted the bearish momentum and we see some bullish move. However this did not hold grounds for long as last week the bears regained control of the market as indicated by the strong bearish engulfing candle, which engulfed the last three bullish candles.

SUMMARY.

Should this pair break below the ‘test limit’, we will be looking to go short on the pair, with our targets aimed at the ‘Near-term support level. Until we have this confirmation, we hold to our cards and not do a thing.

CADJPY

During this week’s analysis, we have an example of market confluence. It (market confluence) always increases our chances of being profitable as it offers high probability setups. Looking left we see price has been falling steeply but the trend reversed on a sizeable hammer. Bulls took over then the bears resumed with their downtrend in a descending equidistant channel. Within the confines of the channel, we see a morning star which is part of a fakey setup. Traders were faked into going short but then the morning star reversed that momentum and even closed above the mother candle which is a signal to go long.

SUMMARY.

Bulls seem to be very resilient within the channel. We’ll have to wait and see if the force will be enough to breakout above of the channel. While this may be true we got to sit on our hands momentarily to see how price behaves around the upper boundary of the descending channel. Sellers may come in and negate the rally; in any case we are in a descending channel.

XAGUSD

We are going to look at silver vs the dollar in this week’s analysis. Price has been on an uptrend since late last year then fell into a consolidation. The range is in form of two chart patterns. On one hand we see a falling wedge, and on the flip side we see a slanting head and shoulder pattern with a slanting neckline as well. Presently price has bounced off the neckline.

SUMMARY.

Currently, the neckline has held its own, but we don’t know for how long. Two scenarios can play out at this point. Eventually bears could take charge and drive price in a waterfall breaking below the neckline. Once a close and confirmation happens, our bias will be bearish. Conversely the bulls may maintain the momentum and  rally price breaking out of the falling wedge. Therefore we wait, as we all know good things come to those who wait.    

GBPAUD

This week’s analysis is going to happen on the weekly timeframe. Price has been trading within an ascending channel for 5 months. Therefore we’re in an uptrend. The occurrence of the price ceiling validates bullish weakness and bear power at this point. Last week’s candle stick closed as a hanging man. A candlestick which shows a high probability of a reversal or weakness in an uptrend. We can describe this as a trading confluence as well. Combination of a level and a reversal candlestick.

SUMMARY.

Our trading confluence gives us a reason to believe that this price might reverse and push further down. As usual we have to wait for a confirmation to validate bear dominance at this level. Patience is key and also the name of the game.

AUDJPY

Analysis on this pair is going to be on the daily timeframe. Immediately we notice that price has been on a downtrend. The momentum on the downtrend paused momentarily and started consolidating in the form of a triple top. Price has been supported severally by the neckline and hasn’t broken below yet.

SUMMARY.

This set up is quite clear and direct but not any different from any other in terms of how we approach it. Patience  is key for validation of an entry or bias. In order to trade this chart pattern, a close and confirmation below the neckline is needed. Until then, let’s stay put. Since price might rotate bullish and trend upwards like we have seen numerous times before.

NZDCAD

Welcome to our weekly analysis this week. We are going to look at NZDCAD on the weekly timeframe. It is quite apparent that we are in a bear market. Trading in a descending channel that dates back to 2016, having retracements lasting a few months then sellers take charge. During the last few weeks, we have seen the bulls trying to mark up the price. Currently we see an indecision candlestick in the form of a doji. The doji lies on the upper boundary of the channel which acts as a resistance zone as shown by the eclipses on the chart.

SUMMARY

This week’s candle indicates indecision; therefore we have to wait for further clarification before we make a move. However price behavior is indicating that buyers are exhausted at this point. A decision has to be made and we need to be keen to identify it. Price may be resisted and rotate lower as we are at a price ceiling shown by the upper boundary of the channel. If bulls regain momentum and break above the resistance zone then we will be alert for a confirmation to open bullish positions.

AUDUSD

Again on the weekly timeframe we are looking at the Aussie this week. Bears have been the dominant market players. They’ve pushed price downwards since 2017.We subsequently find a consolidation in form of a chart pattern. There’s a clear descending triangle which also doubles as a double top. Top 1 and top 2 are labelled. The neckline of the double top acts as the lower boundary of the descending triangle. Price has neither broken out of the double top /the descending triangle. This week the lower boundary has supported the bear power just as it has done 3 times before. 

SUMMARY

In order to open any positions we need to wait patiently for a break out. Price may break out below our pattern,i.e below the double top/descending triangle signaling that the bears are still authoritative. On the other hand it may break above the descending triangle. A validated break out on either direction will give us a high probability trade opportunity.  

This week, we are going to look at the most liquid currency pair. Right away looking left, it’s clear price has been trending strongly bullish. Bulls got exhausted at the top and bears took over and have been successful driving the market bearish. Price has been consolidating in the form of a falling wedge in this bear dominated stage of the market. In addition to that, a few weeks ago, we were trading within an ascending channel. The market broke below the ascending channel and pushed upwards to the lower boundary of the channel for a retest. At the same time we have a level that has acted both as support and resistance. Ladies and gentlemen this is what we call a trading confluence or an A plus setup. Trading confluences are explained in detail in our course, but briefly they are described as when we have more than one occurrence happening at the same time giving us a high probability that something will happen. In this case we have 3 occurrences. Currently price has been resisted by the upper boundary of the falling wedge. The retest on the ascending channel has held at least for this week as price has not been to return to the channel. Finally the level has also held its own and acted as resistance.

SUMMARY:

Following the resistance of the various patterns on price, we have a bearish bias. However waiting for a confirmation is paramount to opening any sell positions. Since we are well aware that price might as well, rally bullish and break out of the wedge, pierce through the level and return back to the channel.

On the gold this week, we are keen to notice that price has been on a strong bullish trend since 2016.Price reached the major level got resisted and sellers took over the market. Bears got exhausted around September 2018 and there was resumption of the bullish take over. Last week price formed a pinbar then followed by a strong bearish confirmation this week. Moreover this week’s candle has engulfed the previous 4 candlesticks and closed below the near term level.

SUMMARY:

Patience of a saint will be needed. The combination of the pinbar and confirmation could be a test of the previous break of the near term level  by the bulls in order to see whether it’ll now act as a support zone. Price may rally even though we have seen a break of the near term level. Alternatively it could be a total reversal of the uptrend and the beginning of a new downtrend. In order to validate the latter we need a confirmation of the bear power by a retest. Further price action will guide us on which path to follow.