EURAUD

EURAUD will be our choice of weekly analysis this week on the daily timeframe. Price has been slightly choppy with a minor uptrend that just reached our near term resistance level as our latest trend. At the level, the previous candlestick has a long upper shadow which did not close above. As well as the current candle which is a doji with a minute real body.

SUMMARY.

From the recent price behavior, bulls are facing resistance pushing price to higher levels. Indecision is what is depicted. A possibility of a reversal is quite high but we have to wait for confirmation to affirm this speculation.

GBPJPY

We are going to follow up on this pair, from analysis done 3 weeks ago. Price was trading within a descending triangle. At the time of the former analysis, we had reached the lower boundary depicted by the yellow eclipse. A bounce occurred off the support zone and rallied up. Later the upper trend line acted as resistance and the market slid off back to the support zone and broke out.

SUMMARY.

With the occurrence of the break and close below our bias shifts bearish. We had our confirmation candle following the breakout. The most recent candlestick is an inside bar. Monitoring of this pair continues to see whether the bear power will persist.

GBPUSD

This week’s analysis will be a follow up on the pair of the Pound against the Dollar based on the analysis we did on the pair two weeks ago. True to our previous analysis, we have seen a breakout from the descending triangle and prices actually move bearish like we anticipated. The bear move was not very strong as it reversed after about 100 pips. The candlestick formation signaled that the bear power is diminishing, and the bulls have taken control of the pair, and are already pushing the price upwards.

SUMMARY.

Following the bullish pressure witnessed towards close of last week, this week we will be keen to follow if the bulls have enough muscles to continue pushing prices up. The next possible target level is the near-term resistance zone at price 1.33471.

AUDCAD

This week, we are also going to follow up on this pair that we analyzed last week. Our bias was bearish after the breakout and pullback that occurred on the chart. The bears have momentarily pushed the prices down. Currently we see some indecision candles on a minor level.

SUMMARY.

We will be waiting to see whether there will be a possible reversal or if the bears will continue to push the prices further down. We continue to monitor this pair.

GBPJPY

We are going to look at the Pound Yen which is often referred to as the monster. It’s  notorious for causing many traders financial and emotional turmoil .Price has been rallying since December last year. Soon after we went into a consolidation period in the form of a descending triangle. On seeing this as price action traders, we must be rejoicing because a good trend will come out of this. Most traders don’t like it when price ranges. Yet we all know trends follow after ranging periods in the market.

SUMMARY.

A descending triangle breaks out below 7 times out of 10.This does not mean we should automatically sell the market. Patience is needed to join in, whichever side there is a breakout. Price will guide us whether we shall reverse the previous uptrend or continue with the bulls. Therefore we sit on our hands until we get a signal, following a breakout and confirmation.

AUDCAD

In this week’s analysis we are looking at the Australian dollar vs. the Lonnie. It is clear that since November of last year price was in a downtrend. Around February this year we had a rally within an ascending channel. Price usually consolidates in form of chart patterns. Safe to say the downtrend was our main trend and the uptrend(within the channel) is our minor trend .We had a breakout which closed below and a pullback ensued that was successful.

SUMMARY.

Once we broke out of the channel, our bias of any bullish momentum was nullified. There’s a high probability that we will continue with the bearish major trend. We now start looking for opportunities to short the market after a confirmation. Therefore let’s closely look on this pair to see whether we will continue with the falling prices.

GBPUSD

On this week’s analysis, we’ll be looking at the daily chart of pound dollar. Swiftly we can see price has been on an uptrend since December last year. Early this year, price topped twice at the major resistance level. A consolidation followed thereafter in the form of a descending triangle. Within the triangle it is visible that the line of least resistance is downwards. Therefore it is no surprise that price broke out and closed below the triangle. The most recent candle stick has an upper shadow, which is highly likely a pullback on the lower timeframes.

SUMMARY.

Evidence of a close below and a retest shifts our bias on this setup to be quite bearish. We closely monitor the pair to see how much further  the bear momentum will persist.

AUDCHF

We’re going to look at this analysis from the weekly timeframe. Price has been making a series of lower highs for the last 2 years. At the same time we see a series of higher lows from late last year consequently forming a symmetrical triangle. The triangle is still intact with no breakout in sight. However within it, there’s a double bottom that has broken out and closed above the neckline.

SUMMARY.

In order to trade the triangle, our rules suggest we wait for a breakout on either side of the pattern. The double bottom breakout may give us a reason to believe that a bull market is imminent. Nevertheless a breakout above the triangle will confirm this hunch. We may even see a pullback on the double bottom first before any further action. Hence we remain patient but vigilant for clear signals guided by a breakout to open positions.

AUDJPY

We are going to look at a follow up on this pair which we did during 25th-29th March. During the previous analysis, there was a triple top that was supported at the neckline which is labeled as the support level now. Bulls sustained the rally after the bounce off the support up until we got to the resistance zone. The second last candle stick was an inside bar and we can see what ensued after that. Finally we broke out of the consolidation by a huge bullish candle stick.

SUMMARY

Price has been ranging between these two levels, (call it a rectangle if you like) since the beginning of the year. Eventually a breakout has occurred and our bias becomes mainly bullish. We shall therefore be patient to see whether we shall experience a pullback as well or if bull power will sustain pushing price much higher.

XAUEUR

This week we are going to look at gold vs the Euro. Evidence of a trading confluence has been sited which should keep us on high alert as price action traders. Quickly looking to the left, we can see bulls were having a splendid time as they gradually rallied the price. A consolidation later followed in the form of two price patterns as advertised by the charts. Within a symmetrical triangle illustrated by the yellow trend lines, we see an almost picture perfect head and shoulder pattern. Both chart patterns have broken to the downside denoted by a close below the patterns by the breakout candle stick.

SUMMARY.

Bears exhibit an intention of taking price for a waterfall; this is evident by the break and close below the patterns. There might be a pullback towards the neckline/trend line to test the boundaries. If the boundaries hold this will give us an ideal and confirmed entry position after the retest. At this moment we wait for two things, a confirmation of the bear dominance by either another bearish candle or a retest. 

NZDUSD

This week we are going to follow up on the NZDUSD pair, mainly based on the weekly analysis we did back in mid-February.  The NZDUSD pair seems to have taken a ranging motion.  It no longer consolidates to form a symmetrical triangle but has been bouncing between the resistance and support level as captured on the chart.

SUMMARY.

Price is currently sitting at the support level and our take as price action traders is to wait for price to guide us, whether the bulls will have their way and take the pair up or will the support level will finally be broken giving way to further bearish momentum?

XAUUSD

From our previous weekly analysis of the Gold vs USD, price had been on a bullish trend which later was resisted on the formation of a pin bar. The bears further took over the market with a strong bearish candlestick. In the following three weeks as shown from the charts, the bulls resisted the bearish momentum and we see some bullish move. However this did not hold grounds for long as last week the bears regained control of the market as indicated by the strong bearish engulfing candle, which engulfed the last three bullish candles.

SUMMARY.

Should this pair break below the ‘test limit’, we will be looking to go short on the pair, with our targets aimed at the ‘Near-term support level. Until we have this confirmation, we hold to our cards and not do a thing.

WHAT IS FOREX TRADING?

Forex Trading is basically the act of buying and selling currencies. In a typical foreign exchange transaction, an entity purchases one currency by paying with another currency.

Forex trading involves the trading of currencies against one another in pairs. Each currency pair thus constitutes an individual trading product and is traditionally noted – EURUSD or EUR/USD just as an example. The first currency (EUR) is the base currency that is quoted relative to the second currency (USD) which is called the counter currency. For example, the quotation EURUSD (EUR/USD) 1.5656 means that 1 Euro = 1.656 US Dollars.

WHO TRADES ON FOREX?

Before the advent of the internet and advancements in technology, the Forex market was only reserved for big players such as big banks, hedge funds, multinational corporations, governments, and central banks.

Things have changed from that period in time with the aid of technological advancements in the Information Technology sector. Access to the market has now been made easier for individual traders and investors. Forex traders can now trade on the Forex market from anywhere around the world as long as they have a computer and an internet connection.

Forex trading is performed by individual traders, institutional investors, corporations, central banks and banks. The reasons these entities trade in Forex range from balancing the markets, facilitating international trade and tourism and making profits.

THE FOREX MARKET

The Forex market is the largest and most liquid financial market in the world with an average daily turnover of $5.3 trillion. Approximately half of this turnover comes from foreign exchange swaps. The rest include spot transactions, outright forwards, currency swaps, foreign exchange options and other products.

Being such a huge market, this means that no single market participant can significantly influence the currencies’ exchange rates. With this in mind, it is important to note that the Forex market hence provides a fair market pricing to all participants.

The market assists international trade and investments by enabling currency conversion. For example, it allows Kenya to import goods from China and pay in the Chinese Yuan instead of the Kenyan Shilling.  It also supports direct speculation and evaluation relative to the value of currencies and the carry trade speculation, based on the differential interest rate between two currencies.

The Forex Market is also quite unique. This is as a result of the following characteristics:

  • It has a huge trading volume. This also means it has a high level of liquidity, which translates to more opportunities to make money.
  • The concept of leverage while placing investments. It is used to significantly increase returns earned from the investments/trades
  • This market operates 24 hours a day, 5 days a week. This means it operates at all times and on all days except on weekends.

WHAT IS TRADED ON FOREX?

There are eight major currencies in the world: the US dollar (USD), euro (EUR), the British pound (GBP), the Swiss franc (CHF), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian dollar (AUD), the New Zealand dollar (NZD), and the Japanese yen (JPY).

There are also other currencies that are not as heavily traded as the major currencies which are known as exotic currencies. Some examples include: the Turkish Lira, the Swedish Krona, the Norwegian Krone, the Danish Krone, the South African Rand, the Hong Kong Dollar and the Singapore Dollar.  Trading these currencies should be left to the more experienced traders, as they can move a lot in very short periods of time and usually involve higher transaction costs than major currencies.

All currency pairs that involve the US Dollar and any of the other major currencies are called “major pairs”. This remains so even if the US Dollar appears as the base or counter currency. In the case where the pairs do not include the US Dollar, but they include two of the remaining seven major currencies, the pairs are called “cross pairs”.

HOW TRADERS MAKE A PROFIT

Forex traders try to buy a currency cheap and sell it later at a higher price. However, there’s also a way to profit when prices fall through a technique called “short selling”.

For example, if the Euro vs. US Dollar is currently trading at 1.5050 and a trader believes that the exchange rate will rise in the future, they would be compelled to buy the pair at the current rate. If after a few hours or days the exchange rate trades at 1.5150, the trader would have made a profit.

CONCLUSION

If you feel like you need to start trading, or you would like to take your trading to the next level, FourthStreet Consultants offers a comprehensive Online Forex Course which is an all-inclusive program for those committed to becoming successful traders. It provides step-by-step trading basics that will equip you with the knowledge and information you need to understand and trade in the Forex market. The Forex Online Course comes with free one-on-one consultations to the signed students, which is done either at the company offices at Karen, Nairobi, or at the student’s convenience with prior arrangement.

CADJPY

During this week’s analysis, we have an example of market confluence. It (market confluence) always increases our chances of being profitable as it offers high probability setups. Looking left we see price has been falling steeply but the trend reversed on a sizeable hammer. Bulls took over then the bears resumed with their downtrend in a descending equidistant channel. Within the confines of the channel, we see a morning star which is part of a fakey setup. Traders were faked into going short but then the morning star reversed that momentum and even closed above the mother candle which is a signal to go long.

SUMMARY.

Bulls seem to be very resilient within the channel. We’ll have to wait and see if the force will be enough to breakout above of the channel. While this may be true we got to sit on our hands momentarily to see how price behaves around the upper boundary of the descending channel. Sellers may come in and negate the rally; in any case we are in a descending channel.

XAGUSD

We are going to look at silver vs the dollar in this week’s analysis. Price has been on an uptrend since late last year then fell into a consolidation. The range is in form of two chart patterns. On one hand we see a falling wedge, and on the flip side we see a slanting head and shoulder pattern with a slanting neckline as well. Presently price has bounced off the neckline.

SUMMARY.

Currently, the neckline has held its own, but we don’t know for how long. Two scenarios can play out at this point. Eventually bears could take charge and drive price in a waterfall breaking below the neckline. Once a close and confirmation happens, our bias will be bearish. Conversely the bulls may maintain the momentum and  rally price breaking out of the falling wedge. Therefore we wait, as we all know good things come to those who wait.    

GBPAUD

This week’s analysis is going to happen on the weekly timeframe. Price has been trading within an ascending channel for 5 months. Therefore we’re in an uptrend. The occurrence of the price ceiling validates bullish weakness and bear power at this point. Last week’s candle stick closed as a hanging man. A candlestick which shows a high probability of a reversal or weakness in an uptrend. We can describe this as a trading confluence as well. Combination of a level and a reversal candlestick.

SUMMARY.

Our trading confluence gives us a reason to believe that this price might reverse and push further down. As usual we have to wait for a confirmation to validate bear dominance at this level. Patience is key and also the name of the game.

AUDJPY

Analysis on this pair is going to be on the daily timeframe. Immediately we notice that price has been on a downtrend. The momentum on the downtrend paused momentarily and started consolidating in the form of a triple top. Price has been supported severally by the neckline and hasn’t broken below yet.

SUMMARY.

This set up is quite clear and direct but not any different from any other in terms of how we approach it. Patience  is key for validation of an entry or bias. In order to trade this chart pattern, a close and confirmation below the neckline is needed. Until then, let’s stay put. Since price might rotate bullish and trend upwards like we have seen numerous times before.

NZDCAD

Welcome to our weekly analysis this week. We are going to look at NZDCAD on the weekly timeframe. It is quite apparent that we are in a bear market. Trading in a descending channel that dates back to 2016, having retracements lasting a few months then sellers take charge. During the last few weeks, we have seen the bulls trying to mark up the price. Currently we see an indecision candlestick in the form of a doji. The doji lies on the upper boundary of the channel which acts as a resistance zone as shown by the eclipses on the chart.

SUMMARY

This week’s candle indicates indecision; therefore we have to wait for further clarification before we make a move. However price behavior is indicating that buyers are exhausted at this point. A decision has to be made and we need to be keen to identify it. Price may be resisted and rotate lower as we are at a price ceiling shown by the upper boundary of the channel. If bulls regain momentum and break above the resistance zone then we will be alert for a confirmation to open bullish positions.

AUDUSD

Again on the weekly timeframe we are looking at the Aussie this week. Bears have been the dominant market players. They’ve pushed price downwards since 2017.We subsequently find a consolidation in form of a chart pattern. There’s a clear descending triangle which also doubles as a double top. Top 1 and top 2 are labelled. The neckline of the double top acts as the lower boundary of the descending triangle. Price has neither broken out of the double top /the descending triangle. This week the lower boundary has supported the bear power just as it has done 3 times before. 

SUMMARY

In order to open any positions we need to wait patiently for a break out. Price may break out below our pattern,i.e below the double top/descending triangle signaling that the bears are still authoritative. On the other hand it may break above the descending triangle. A validated break out on either direction will give us a high probability trade opportunity.