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EURUSD

On the weekly chart of the Euro vs The US dollar (EURUSD) we see a complete falling wedge. This pattern appears after a steep uptrend that lasted a whole year. Price later consolidated within the chart pattern for a period of 2 years. Bulls then pushed price out of the pattern last week causing a breakout.

SUMMARY.

The breakout gives us reason to believe that there’s a high probability buyers will control the market going forward. However, as usual we need price action confirmation to ascertain our bias. Usually, a descending wedge in an uptrend is a potential continuation signal but in due time we will get to know whether the buyers will push prices higher possibly targeting the near term level.

GBPCAD

On the weekly chart of the British pound versus the Canadian dollar (GBPCAD), there’s a descending channel within which prices have ranged for almost 2 years. The descending channel shows that the main trend is bearish, up until the channel breaks out. Which happened in the week that just concluded.

SUMMARY.

Sentiment changes from bearish to bullish after a breakout above a descending channel. Confirmation by price will guide us on the right entry point following our bullish bias. Beware that price pulling back to the resistance of the channel before going up higher is a very likely possibility.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

AUDNZD

This week we’re going to do a second follow up on the Australian Dollar versus the New Zealand Dollar (AUDNZD) pair on the weekly timeframe. Our last analysis, was after the confirmation candlestick and we had formed a bearish bias on the pair. Bears are still in control of the market as they have been able to push price lower for 2 consecutive weeks.

SUMMARY.

Just like we mentioned a fortnight ago, the main trend is bearish. We will therefore monitor and watch price to see whether it’ll push lower all the way to our level of support within the channel. 

GBPUSD

Revisiting the Great Britain Pound versus The US Dollar (GBPUSD) pair shows some market movement that we foresaw 3 weeks ago. At the time of the previous analysis, price had just broken out of the bullish flag. There was a retest that even went beyond the resistance of the flag, but bulls took charge and pushed price higher breaking out of the pattern again.

SUMMARY.

Price is clearly on an uptrend, as we broke out of the larger channel and price is almost back at the top from where that channel begun. Patience is needed as we await to see whether the bulls can sustain the upward pressure all the way up to the major level.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

EURJPY

Following up on the Euro versus the Japanese Yen pair (EURJPY), that we analyzed a fortnight ago. Our bias then was bullish ensuing the first retest. Bears came in after the first retest and pushed prices lower for another test. We can see that the test was successful as the neckline wasn’t broken. Bulls later came in and started the rally again.

SUMMARY.

Price action confirms our previous bullish bias by another test and a minor rally. Therefore, we still believe bulls may sustain higher prices possibly to the near term level.

EURAUD

On the weekly chart on the Euro versus the Australian dollar pair (EURAUD), price has been ranging since June this year. In the process a descending triangle formed and last week we had a break out from the resistance of the triangle.

SUMMARY.

A break out above the pattern is an indicator of potential bullish direction. Following the potential direction, we need price action confirmation to back up our bullish bias. The confirmation in this case could be in the lower timeframe such as the daily chart. We closely monitor the pair to see if price will rise all the way to the major level if bulls take charge.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

AUDNZD

Two months ago we analyzed the Australian Dollar versus the New Zealand Dollar (AUDNZD) pair on the weekly chart. The scenario then was a double bottom breakout facing some resistance at a long term trendline – (see weekly analysis of 30th-4th Oct for more information). We have a different scenario now, seeing that the main trend is still a downtrend lasting 2 years 4 months, of which is no surprise since price is trading within a descending channel. On the upper boundary of the channel which serves as our resistance there’s a double top which has broken out below.

SUMMARY.

The double bottom breakout at our resistance zone is a clear indication of bearish activity. Chances are that we may see lower prices in the near future. However we shouldn’t ignore the fact that we’re in a descending channel and price may also breakout above. We sit tight and let price action do the heavy lifting for us as it confirms entries.

USDCHF

Looking at the weekly chart of the US Dollar vs the Swiss Franc pair (USDCHF), there’s the formation of an ascending channel within a down trend that began in April this year. In the month of August, price bottomed and the bulls kicked off the rally. The uptrend has occurred within an ascending channel.

SUMMARY.

We know that price is supported (at the lower boundary) and resisted (at the upper boundary) of the channel. So it’s safe to say the bulls are in control of the market as long as price stays within the channel. The most recent candlestick shows rejection of the lower prices at the support level, because it’s a bullish engulfing. Further price action will be our best guide to know whether the uptrend will continue or if bears may come in and cause a breakout below the channel.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

GBPUSD

On the daily chart of the British Pound vs the US Dollar (GBPUSD) pair, we’re looking at a breakout out of a major descending channel. Price has been on a downtrend for one year and 7 months. Eventually, bulls took over and took price higher breaking out of the descending channel. Sentiment changed from bearish to bullish after the breakout. As the rally continued, price fell into another consolidation forming a bullish flag. A combination of a steep uptrend and a descending channel.

SUMMARY.

Price action gives us reason to believe that the price is on its way higher, especially if the price breaks out of the bullish flag, ensuing the uptrend.  We stay put and wait for price action to direct our next move.

EURJPY

On the Euro vs the Japanese Yen (EURJPY) the daily chart brings us to the realization of a pattern within a pattern. After a downtrend that lasted 1 year 9 months, the market bottomed forming a double bottom and a rally followed within an ascending channel. The double bottom broke out above last month, price came back to test the neckline and was successfully supported. This is another good example of trading confluence where two patterns are working out together to give us the same bias.

SUMMARY.

It is safe to say that price action suggests the pair is being controlled by bulls at the moment. Since price is trading within a rising channel, we wait to see whether the uptrend will possibly get to our near term level.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

AUDNZD

The Australian Dollar vs the New Zealand Dollar (AUDNZD) pair on the weekly chart, we have a complete formation of a double bottom. The pattern broke out 9 weeks ago and has since retested the neckline upon which it was supported. We can base our bullish bias on this event.

SUMMARY.

As price action traders, we stay vigilant and wait to see whether the bulls have the intention of pushing price higher up possibly towards our major resistance. Such intentions would be depicted by candlesticks closing above the previous weeks’ candles.

XAUUSD

Shifting our attention to the daily chart of Gold vs the Us dollar (XAUUSD). We can see that price has been on a steep uptrend. Bulls have been persistently pushing price up since August last year. In the past 4 months, price has formed a descending triangle, that broke out below last week.

SUMMARY.

A breakout below the descending triangle is a potential bearish signal. However, price action confirmation is key before opening up any positions. Price may pull back to test the previous support level of the pattern as resistance before resuming its way further below.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

USDCAD

We’re revisiting the Dollar vs the Canadian dollar pair (USDCAD) which we covered 3 weeks ago. The setup was an ascending triangle on the daily timeframe. On the daily chart it is quite clear that the direction the price took following the breakout of the pattern is downwards. At the time of the previous analysis, price was within the pattern at the lower boundary that acted as support. In the ensuing weeks, the price broke out below, came back for a retest and was resisted.

SUMMARY.

We monitor the price to see whether the bears will continue to push prices lower and possibly to the near term level.

AUDCHF

An ascending channel on the daily chart of The Australian dollar vs The Swiss Franc (AUDCHF) is our point of focus this week. The pair has been in a bearish trend for 3 years. The price is currently at the resistance level (upper boundary of the pattern) which coincides with the major level of the ascending channel. Bulls are dominant within the pattern, forming consecutive higher highs.

SUMMARY.

Looking at the previous candle which was an engulfing one, that candlestick at a major level may be an indication of bearish momentum coming in. However, as always we need to wait for a breakout because price may breakout on either side. Again patience is key, also consider the trend before opening any positions.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

EURNZD

On the daily chart of  the Euro vs the New Zealand dollar (EURNZD), price has been consolidating in an uptrend forming an ascending wedge. Prices broke out below the pattern and came back for a possible pullback to test the lower boundary for resistance. At the moment, the price has been resisted as it has been unable to get back to the pattern. However we need to affirm the retest by a bearish candlestick.

SUMMARY.

Our bias is bearish, ensuing the breakout, however price action will confirm our entry. A dominant bearish candlestick such as an engulfing would be a good indication of lower prices to come.

CADCHF

Looking at the weekly chart of the Canadian Dollar versus the Swiss Franc (CADCHF), price is trading within the two trend lines (support and resistance) forming a symmetrical triangle. Price broke out of the pattern and preceding the breakout, an inside bar formed which was confirmed by the breakout candlestick. This shows a lot of bullish momentum and bias.

SUMMARY.

In this setup, we can look for an entry on a lower timeframe following price action confirmation. The  possibility of a re test is however present. We wait to see whether buyers will sustain the rally to the major level in the preceding weeks.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

USDCHF

Looking at a minor uptrend on the Dollar vs The Swiss Franc (USDCHF) that began in August this year, the prices have been trading within an ascending channel on the daily timeframe, where the main players are bulls. Recently the channel broke out below and had a confirmation the next day.

SUMMARY.

Market sentiment has changed from bullish to bearish after the breakout. Are we going to see lower prices possibly to the near term level? A retest to the channel support is a possibility as well, before price resumes the bearish trend.

AUDJPY

For the past 5 years, the Australian Dollar vs the Japanese Yen (AUDJPY) pair has been on a downtrend on the weekly timeframe. Last month, prices broke out below a major level, and later formed an ascending triangle. The upper boundary of the triangle coincides with the major level which is a confluence. Price has been supported by the trend-line and resisted at the major level.

SUMMARY.

In such a scenario, we would be best placed to wait and act after the breakout. Bears may come in at the major level and push price lower to resume the bear market. Bulls may however continue with the rally causing a breakout of the triangle. Price action confirmation is key before we open any position.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

EURCHF

On the EURCHF pair a fortnight ago, we looked at the weekly timeframe, on which bears have been in control. At the time, the fakey setup was our point of analysis. Two weeks later price has  rallied closing above the consolidation.

SUMMARY.

Based on the fakey setup our bias was bearish. However, price action confirmation was needed to affirm our expectations, especially after the fakey happened at a major level. Bulls came in at the level and pushed prices higher. Will the rally be sustained to the upper boundary of the channel taking into consideration that the main trend is bearish? As always price, the ultimate indicator will guide us.

USDCAD

The US Dollar vs The Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) has been consolidating within an ascending triangle as seen on the daily chart. In this pattern, bulls are in control forming consecutive higher lows. Prices have moved sharply bearish in the past two days, indicating a strong selling pressure.

SUMMARY.

To increase the probability of our trades whenever we’re looking at patterns, a breakout is needed. Prices could be supported at the lower boundary followed by a  rally up, or a breakout downward showing the bearish strength. We therefore protect our capital as we patiently wait for a confirmation.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.