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EURCHF

On the EURCHF pair a fortnight ago, we looked at the weekly timeframe, on which bears have been in control. At the time, the fakey setup was our point of analysis. Two weeks later price has  rallied closing above the consolidation.

SUMMARY.

Based on the fakey setup our bias was bearish. However, price action confirmation was needed to affirm our expectations, especially after the fakey happened at a major level. Bulls came in at the level and pushed prices higher. Will the rally be sustained to the upper boundary of the channel taking into consideration that the main trend is bearish? As always price, the ultimate indicator will guide us.

USDCAD

The US Dollar vs The Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) has been consolidating within an ascending triangle as seen on the daily chart. In this pattern, bulls are in control forming consecutive higher lows. Prices have moved sharply bearish in the past two days, indicating a strong selling pressure.

SUMMARY.

To increase the probability of our trades whenever we’re looking at patterns, a breakout is needed. Prices could be supported at the lower boundary followed by a  rally up, or a breakout downward showing the bearish strength. We therefore protect our capital as we patiently wait for a confirmation.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

XAUUSD

This week on the XAUUSD pair after the long term uptrend, prices have gone into a consolidation within a descending channel. The minor trend is a downtrend, guided by the chart pattern. However we must keep in mind that the main trend is still bullish. Indecision candles closed off the week giving us signs of uncertainty, more so the formation of the long legged doji near the upper boundary of the channel.

SUMMARY.

A bearish confirmation of the doji will give us a bearish bias. If not, further price action will guide us on the best course of action. For instance, a price breakout above the channel would mean that the upward trend may continue.

EURCAD

On the EURCAD pair, we have a descending wedge in a downtrend is usually a potential reversal signal. As usual, we have to wait for confirmation, before pulling the trigger. Price broke out of the wedge. The next candlestick after the wedge made a small pullback indicated by the lower shadow, also clearly seen on a lower timeframe. Furthermore the pullback candlestick doubles as an inside bar, a potential continuation signal.

SUMMARY.

Patience is needed to confirm whether bulls will come in strongly after the breakout and take price higher potentially to the near term resistance level.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

AUDNZD

This week on the AUDNZD pair we have a setup that depicts a pattern within a pattern. A double bottom within a descending triangle. The double bottom broke out, pulled back to the neckline and was supported. Evidence of the pullback is the lower shadow on the pullback candlestick, that means lower prices were rejected as there was buying pressure.

SUMMARY.

We have a bullish bias following the double bottom breakout. However we need a confirmation candlestick to increase the probability of the opportunity. A confirmation in this case would be a close above/breakout of the descending triangle.

EURCHF

The main trend on the EURCHF pair has been bearish as prices have been trending within a descending channel since April last year. Prices are currently at a major support zone. Last week, prices closed off forming a Fakey setup. Traders were faked out going bullish but then there was a close below the mother candle.

SUMMARY.

The Fakey setup is a bearish signal, nevertheless caution should be observed as we’re at a major support zone. Price action will guide as to whether we will follow price following a breakout below the level, or rally higher to the upper boundary of the channel.


Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and general information only and not advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Do your own research/analysis and don’t blindly enter trades based on the analysis.

GBPNZD

This week we revisit the pair of GBPNZD that we covered in last week’s analysis. At the time, price was trading in an ascending channel which is an indication of bullish dominance. The Doji followed by the Marubozu gave us a bullish bias, and we can testify that the rally continued. Currently price is at our major resistance zone with the formation of a pin bar.

SUMMARY.

We will be keen to watch what happens next, that is if price will reverse at the resistance level of price 2.009, or if the buyers have enough pressure to break the resistance level. In the case of a reversal, we will watch out for a confirmation signal such as an Engulfing.

GBPUSD

A Descending Channel formation on the weekly timeframe has come to our attention. This pattern can act as a reversal or continuation signal depending on the trend. Price was in an uptrend 2 years ago, before consolidating in a falling wedge. The last candlestick formed was a Doji which also happens to be an inside bar.

SUMMARY.

A breakout of the Wedge will give us a clear direction on where price is likely head next. Since the breakout has not happened, we sit on our hands. The Inside Bar is a potential continuation signal following the bullish candle. At the same time, the Doji shows us indecision. Patience is needed to ascertain whether price will breakout on the upside or be resisted and trade within the wedge.

CADJPY

On the CADJPY pair, the focus this week is a consolidation in form of a weekly descending channel. The tag of war between bulls and bears within the channel is evident as prices have been contained within the support and resistance boundaries. However the main players are the bears who have taken prices lower and lower for the past 2 years.. The past week closed off with a pin bar.

SUMMARY.

Pin bars are potential reversal signals. In order to come up with a bearish bias, we need to see the pin bar confirmed by a candlestick that closes below such as an engulfing or a bearish marubozu. Until then, we patiently observe the charts for further price action.

GBPNZD

On the GBPNZD pair, the daily timeframe shows an ongoing fairly strong uptrend trading within an ascending channel. Bulls are the dominant market participants signified by the trend which is up. Prices have been resisted at the upper boundary as well as being supported at the lower boundary. Most recently a doji formed followed by a bullish marubozu.

SUMMARY.

Price action suggests that bulls are determined to push prices much higher. Nevertheless, we have to monitor and see how price will behave upon reaching the channel’s resistance. Otherwise the rally may be headed towards the major resistance.

EURAUD

EURAUD

A close look at the pair on the daily timeframe reveals a clear ascending price channel that has continued to hold grounds. More significantly, the price channel falls within a long-term uptrend, making it a strong pattern to trade off. From the charts, we find that prices have respected the lower support line of the channel, with prices reversing to the upside for the last 6 months.

SUMMARY.

The price is currently almost touching the support line of the channel. At this point, we watch for price action reversal patterns such as a bullish pinbar/double bottom/engulfing, both in the daily and the lower timeframe of the 4hr in order to go long. We do not open any position(s) before we have entry confirmation to the upside.

CADCHF

CADCHF

This week we revisit this pair that we covered about two weeks ago in our weekly analysis. Zooming at the daily chart, we find that the clearly cut-out descending price channel has continued to hold grounds, with prices trading within the support and resistance lines of the channel for the last eight months. What makes the current level more significant for us, price action traders, is the fact that it falls within the near-term resistance level.

SUMMARY.

We stay put, hold our guns, as we wait for reversal price action patterns/candles such as a bearish pinbar/bearish engulfing candle/hammer to inform our bearish bias. Once the pattern(s) forms, coupled with an entry confirmation, we pull the trigger aiming towards the downside.

GBPUSD

This week we will look at the British Pound vs The US Dollar (GBPUSD) which we had covered a fortnight ago. At the time, price had just closed above the mother candle, indicated by the breakout candle. Our bias was bullish , ensuing the breakout.

SUMMARY.

Bulls caused a rally ,halting at the upper boundary of the descending channel. This boundary acted as resistance. Remember in the previous analysis, we mentioned that the major trend is bearish. Furthermore we are in a descending channel. Therefore we monitor the pair closely to see whether the bearish trend will resume.

USDCHF

Looking at the daily chart of The Dollar vs The Swiss Franc (USDCHF), we can see the formation of a descending triangle. Price is forming lower highs being resisted by the upper boundary as well as  lows being supported by the lower boundary of the triangle. During the past week we have seen bullish strength coming in, leading to a breakout of the channel.

SUMMARY.

Following the break out of the price pattern, we watch closely to see if  there will be a confirmation, after which we will follow price.

GBPAUD

Early this month we looked at The Great Britain Pound vs The Australian Dollar (GBPAUD). We are doing a follow up on the previous analysis where an ascending channel had formed. A bullish engulfing candlestick pattern formed at the bottom of the channel. After the said formation, we had bullish bias and we were patient for price action to confirm this bias.

SUMMARY.

Coming after the bullish engulfing was a period of consolidation within which indecision candles formed, namely a hammer and inverted hammer. During the past week we see a bullish candlestick with a wide spread, closing above the consolidation area confirming our bias of a bounce off the lower boundary of the pattern. We continue to monitor this pair in order to know whether bullish strength will remain dominant within the channel.

NZDJPY

Following up on a previous analysis on the weekly chart of The New Zealand Dollar vs The Japanese Yen (NZDJPY). The analysis was done in the month of June where we saw a descending triangle breakout and retest. At the time, the retest that happened is marked in red. Price went on and further retested the lower boundary of the pattern highlighted in yellow.

SUMMARY.

Our chart pattern breakout led to lower prices where we see a strong downtrend depicted by the steep gradient of the trend. We continue to watch this pair for further price action to confirm whether the downtrend will persist.

GBPUSD

On this week’s analysis looking at The British Pound vs The US Dollar on the daily timeframe.. We are going to analyze the candlestick formation within a descending channel. This pair has been on a very much sustained downtrend. Therefore it goes without saying that we’re in a bear market. At the moment we’re at a strong support zone. A mother candle has formed at the support zone, followed by multiple inside bars. The last days’ candlestick has broken out  above the mother candle.

SUMMARY.

A close above the mother candle is an indication that the bulls may be coming into this market, invalidating the bearish mother candlestick. Whenever inside bars form, a close either above or below the mother candle will most likely indicate an opportunity.  However we should keep in mind that we’re in a bear market. Price action will give us confirmation whether bulls will reverse prices or they will just cause a minor retracement probably to the upper trendline of the channel before bears resume with the downtrend.

CADCHF

On the weekly chart of The Canadian Dollar vs The Swiss Franc, there’s a formation of a triple top, which broke out last week. This weeks’ candlestick after the breakout candle is a dragonfly doji.

SUMMARY.

Succeeding the breakout of the triple top, our bias is bearish. The upper shadow of the doji shows that price rallied to the neckline but got resisted. This is a sign of a pullback which is visibly seen on a lower timeframe such as the daily. Sellers later came in and pushed price lower but bulls fought back and price closed on the highs. Since doji’s show indecision, we have to wait for further price action to confirm lower prices.

EURAUD

On the weekly chart of The Euro vs The Australian Dollar, we can see the complete formation of an ascending triangle. Price has been trading within the triangle since August last year. Moreover, two months ago we had a false breakout whereby a candlestick closed above the triangle, but the next one reversed prices all the way down to the lower boundary. This is why it’s important to wait for confirmation after a breakout to avoid false breaks. Recently we see another close above the triangle.

SUMMARY.

Ensuing the recent breakout, we again have to wait for further price action to confirm bullish strength. A confirmation on the lower timeframes such as the daily would give as a clear indication of whether price will continue going higher or lower.

CHFJPY

On this week’s weekly analysis, we’re looking at The Swiss Franc versus The Japanese Yen. Bears have been very dominant for one year, as we’ve seen a waterfall of price. The descending channel is a vivid indication of the bearish superiority. However 7 weeks ago, bulls pushed price higher and we had a breakout. Previously, before the breakout, price was resisted by the upper boundary of the channel as well as being supported by the same boundary after the breakout.

SUMMARY.

Our bias on this currency pair is bullish following the breakout. However we wait for price action as usual to confirm this. A dominant bull candle would be a good indication of future higher prices.