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WEEKLY FX MARKET ANALYSIS NZDCAD 7TH – 11TH JANUARY, 2019

The major trend of the pair is bearish since we are making lower highs and lower lows. The last time we did analysis on this pair in November 2008, we saw a pin bar forming in a support-turn resistance zone. Furthermore, we see a descending price channel and the trendline has yet to be breached. A strong bearish force of the week has seen to the prices move much lower. Will the bears keep up with the momentum? As always the price is the king and we will wait for further price action to confirm the bears strength.

Summary: Although this currency pair has had a strong bull rally, the movement halted when a pin bar formed at the resistance area. A strong bear candle follows up in the first week of the year, an indication that this currency pair may have resumed the main bearish trend.

FX MARKET ANALYSIS NZDUSD NZDUSD 17th – 21ST Dec, 2018 📈📊💰

The kiwi has been on a losing streak and this pair has been on a significant downtrend. We see a break of the support and the price has come back to retest the price. The doji forms followed by the bears who have dominated the market. Are we going to see a continuation? We will let the price give us more light in the behavior of this pair in the forthcoming days.

CURRENCY PAIR: NZDCAD 17th – 21ST Dec, 2018 📈📊💰

This pair has been on a strong uptrend and the momentum of this pair is prone to exhaustion. The quick bullish move has definitely started showing signs of weakness as the market reaches the resistance zone. The pair is indecisive and the bears seem alert. The market main trend is bearish and this is a classic pullback to retest the break of this support. Nevertheless we will watch out for the price to guide us further in order to pick a bias.

CADCHF(10th December to 14th December)

Analysis: A close look at this pair reveals that prices are have been consolidating and forming a symmetrical triangle. This is a strong indication of an eminent break-out of prices. Therefore, we should expect a breakout on either side of the triangle, that is either to the upwards or to the downside.

Summary: At this point we do not know the direction of the anticipated break-out, we therefore sit and wait for a clear price action signal after prices have broken out to decide on our bias on this pair, that is whether to go long or short.

Weekly Analysis of Trade Set ups & Ideas USDCHF

USDCHF (19th November to 23rd November)

We analyzed this pair last week, and we are still on a ranging market. There has been a strong bullish rally but the US dollar might be losing its strength on this strong resistance zone which has held grounds for the last three years!!

Summary: The bears are taking control of this pair based on last week reversal candlestick. Therefore, we will be closely monitoring this pair for trend reversal price action patterns/signals to confirm our bias to go short on the pair.

Weekly Analysis of Trade Set ups & Ideas EURUSD

EURUSD (19th November to 23rd November)

As we had analyzed the pair last week, we expected a weak euro where we anticipated the pair to break below the neckline of the ‘Head shoulder shoulder pattern’ and a strong dollar but it turned out the downward pressure could not hold. The pair showed a strong rejection of the resistance level, which is turning into a new support level.

The euro retaliated with a strong comeback forming a weekly ‘engulfing candlestick pattern’.

Summary: Our bias for this week and the coming weeks will be to monitor and look for buy price action signals/patterns to go long on this pair, unless price action tells us otherwise.

USDJPY (19th November to 23rd November)

This pair has been very choppy for the last few weeks, but prices are at a major resistance. The US Dollar has been strong overall hence the bullish rally of the yen. The rally came to a halt at the major resistance zone where the currency has had major consolidation. Last week a weekly bearish engulfing candlestick pattern formed, warning us of a potential reversal setup.

Summary: Based on last week’s reversal engulfing candlestick, our bias on this pair remains to go short, however, we will be keen to wait for more confirmation that the trend has actually reversed in order for us to join the downtrend trend.

On our weekly Trade Forex Analysis of Trade set ups and ideas for August 27th to august 31st, here is our analysis:

weekly trade set up & ideas analysis BY FOURTHSTREET CONSULTANTS

Currency pair: EURUSD
Summary: This week’s price surged high after last week’s market reversal as the bulls took over. Currently, we look forward to trade along the upward trend, as we watch the long-term resistance level of 1.1412 turn into a new support line. We therefore watch for  price action signals on any market weakness to rejoin the upward trend.
FourthStreet Consultants Weekly Trade Forex Analysis of Trade set ups and ideas for August 27th to august 31st.

Today’s article, Trading-vs-Hunting is inspired by a book. ‘The One thing’ is one of the greatest books I have read and would strongly advice you get. In his book, Gary Keller undertakes to cover in detail the greatest people and the biggest companies that have achieved enormous success mainly by mastering the one thing/skill they are good at, thereby maximizing on their performance and success.

As traders, we should learn from this book, and use the concept of mastering your strength, and banking more on your area of strength as a trader, whether you are a day trader, a position trader, or a swing trader.

Am sure by now you probably wondering why the topic ‘trading vs. hunting’? There are many similarities between successful/high probability trading and hunting. Let’s use a lion hunting for prey in the jungle. Lion in our case being you, the trader, the jungle being the forex market, and the prey being the trading opportunities that we are always looking to find on the markets.

If you have watched the national geographic, then you’d understand the hunting style of a lion, and other cats in the jungle. No matter how hungry the lion is, there is a formula that he uses to hunt. He doesn’t jump out rightly to chase the prey. First, on spotting the prey, he always takes cover, then watches the prey. At this point, I equate lion watching the prey to a trader studying and analyzing the forex markets/pairs that he/she’s looking to trade. After a careful and a thorough evaluation of the prey, the lion then spots the easiest target to catch, whether it is a weak prey, or one that is at the direction that is easier for him to chase.

This is the highlight of today’s article. So then what lessons do we learn as traders from the hunting style of the king of the jungle? At this point, how does hunting relate to trading? One of the most obvious lessons we learn today is that just like the lion, we as traders must not rush at our ‘prey’, i.e. opening random positions in the market, before taking our time to evaluate our chances of ‘catching the prey’ i.e. analyzing and identifying winning trades in the markets. At any one second on the markets, there’s always price movements and volatility, but it is not all the time that we get to identify high probability trades, which have high chances of making us money.

It is therefore paramount that traders need to analyze the markets using the techniques of price action, trend following, while observing the long-term support and resistance zones, in order to go for an ‘obvious’ trade that offers a good loss to profit ratio of 1:2 and above in order to make consistent money in the market. Mastering such strategies, and attaining the discipline of the patience of the lion requires proper trading education, and new traders to practice trading on the live markets while employing the trading education and strategies acquired from the courses they undertake.

As I conclude, it is paramount to note that the lion might not always catch the prey he chooses to chase, but most of the times he catches he’s prey of choice. This relates to trading in that it goes further to show that as traders, we will experience some losing trades, but as long as we have more winning trades that have high ratios of loss to profit, then and only then can we be guaranteed of successful trading and making money consistently from the markets day after day, month after month, year after year.

 

Joshua Matumo,

Fourthstreet Consultants.

Forex Trading as a business

What comes to your mind when you hear or think about forex trading? What makes you wake up every day to open the markets and initiate positions? Is it the excitement that comes with the ever volatile currency markets where 5.3 trillion dollars is traded every day, or is it the short-term gratification that comes with winning small moves in the market? Probably, it might be the applauses you get from your friends and family on how much of a ‘Financial markets expert you.’

I have highlighted the above questions, not to judge but to get your attention on some of the major reasons why you probably haven’t been able to make money consistently from trading the markets, or why you have lost more money than you had invested in trading the forex markets. In fact, I personally fell prey to some of the above effects when I was starting my career 9 years ago, so it is about the right time for you to stay woke and approach trading as a business and as a profession.

Let’s ponder on some life realities for a minute, before I move on to the ‘meat’ of this article. It is common knowledge that engineers, doctors, and lawyers need to attend school for quite a number of years, ranging from 4 to 7 years, before they are expected to be professionals and earn a living. Soccer and basketball players start playing in their lower grades, then proceed to play in college, before they are finally enrolled to play professionally in competitive clubs. Then the obvious question is, Why should traders think they are any different?? Why do traders think they can be professionals and make a fortune from trading the markets after reading a couple of articles and demo trading for a few weeks?? I promised myself that I would rather tell the hard nock truth, get few followers or mentees, than preach the easy gospel of easy money making from trading the markets that is not real. Furthermore, any professional trader will out rightly tell you that trading the markets is one of the most tactical careers you’ll ever undertake, and if you don’t follow the disciplines and the rules, you’ll end up living a frustrated life. Sounds harsh, right? But is it not a common ideal in life, where you have to do your research, weigh your chances, and do a SWOT analysis before getting into any business, job, or venture.

Trading the forex markets as a business requires several key disciplines that come with proper education and practicing trading on live markets. One of the most important elements of professional trading is risk/money management. Learning proper risk/money management skills is paramount in successful trading as a business. Traders learn on how much percentage of their capital they should risk on a single trade. Money management is the only discipline that guarantees traders of the survival and their ability to catch the next opportunity in the market. It allows capital preservation in that you control your risk per trade, thereby preserving your bigger capital to enable you catch the next market moves.

Attaining the right Trader Psychology is equally important in trading as a business. Once you begin your trading career you will soon realize that emotions are involved in trading, especially if it is your real money on the line, and sometimes you have to watch as you get a loss on your capital in the market. If you are among the group of traders that can’t catch some sleep watching your traders overnight, or you can’t leave your computer due to fear of losing, then your money management and trader psychology are in question, and you desperately need to change your trading habits. This can only be achieved by accessing proper trading education like the training we offer here at Fourthstreet Consultants or any other reputable forex courses.

Thirdly, trading as a business requires one to keep their record of trading activities. This means recording their point of entry, the size of their trades (lot sizes), their predetermined stop losses, and take profits, exit points, and the outcome of the trade. Traders are able to do this by using a trading Journal. This way they can track their performance and note their weakness thereby growing holistically in their trading career.

Last but not the least, trading as a business calls for traders to have an in-depth knowledge of trading strategies, understand daily market movements, and chart patterns. People who wish to venture into online trading need to invest in getting education on price action, and how to study and analyze the forex markets, in order to trade profitable, and to join the winning team of high probability traders. Such skills, disciplines, and trading strategies for new and existing traders can be achieved from our comprehensive Price action course that we offer at FourthStreet Consultants. Those who sign up with our course get mentorship from our team of professional and experienced traders who offer Consultation on phone, email, and physical meetings at our offices every day of the week. I wish you happy trading, and that you learn to approach trading as a business.