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This week’s analysis will consist of a follow up of the previous week’s work. In the past 5 trading days on the pair, price broke and closed below the neckline momentarily. Which was then followed by a rejection of much lower prices and price pushed further up. The recent bullish move is seen to have reached on the level of the left shoulder of the head and shoulder chart pattern.

SUMMARY:

Remember we mentioned previously that in order to trade the head and shoulder pattern we have to be patient for a break and close below then followed by a confirmation. Basically the pattern is only complete if the latter happens. However our pattern was not completed, buyers took over the market and bid for higher prices.It should be clear how waiting for a confirmation prevented one to be faked out by the close below of the neckline. Currently price has formed an inside bar. We’ll again have to wait for a confirmation from price whether price will continue bullish with a close above the mother candle or reverse and close below it.

Today we shall approach the analysis on this pair from the weekly timeframe. We establish that prices on the pair has been ranging for some years since 2014. The market has been on a major consolidation, and currently, price is ranging in the form of an ascending triangle. In addition, the flat side of the ascending triangle, lies on a major level that has acted both as a support and resistance level in the past.

SUMMARY:

In as much as we have an ascending triangle, it is not obvious that we should now open long positions. Instead, to go long we have to wait for a breakout from the triangle and the resistance line, i.e. a retest and a confirmation before open a position. Price could also be resisted at the major support level/the flat side of the triangle and push downwards. Therefore at this point, we should sit on our hands and wait for the market to guide us on the next course of action.

Analysis

This pair has been on bear market.  A huge tailed bar formed at the close of last week, hinting a false break of the minor support line, but finding its support at the major monthly resistance area. The bulls make a huge comeback to push the prices higher but will the momentum hold its ground?

Summary: The market has been bear-dominated, but we might see a change in sentiment if the support area is strong enough to reject the prices moving further downside. As always we let the price be our master and we be listening to hear what the market is telling us before we can take initiate any positions on the pair.

WEEKLY FX MARKET ANALYSIS NZDCAD 7TH – 11TH JANUARY, 2019

The major trend of the pair is bearish since we are making lower highs and lower lows. The last time we did analysis on this pair in November 2008, we saw a pin bar forming in a support-turn resistance zone. Furthermore, we see a descending price channel and the trendline has yet to be breached. A strong bearish force of the week has seen to the prices move much lower. Will the bears keep up with the momentum? As always the price is the king and we will wait for further price action to confirm the bears strength.

Summary: Although this currency pair has had a strong bull rally, the movement halted when a pin bar formed at the resistance area. A strong bear candle follows up in the first week of the year, an indication that this currency pair may have resumed the main bearish trend.

WEEKLY FX MARKET ANALYSIS EURGBP 7TH – 11TH JANUARY, 2019

This currency has been in a sideways direction since late 2017, and the channel has held its ground up to now. There have been a few false breaks of the channel but the breakouts could not be sustained.

The bulls dominated the market in the late 2018 only to show signs of exhaustion by the weekly pin bars that have formed over the last three weeks. The bulls’ weakness was further demonstrated by the numerous whipsaws and false breaks swing highs and the market price finally finding its way back to the sideways channel.

The bears eventually retaliated with a strong rejection at the resistance level, plunging the prices down which may be an indication of a change in sentiment.

Summary: Since the market prices are back to the sideways channel we will wait for further price action signal(s) to guide us on the direction bias of the pair.

FX MARKET ANALYSIS NZDUSD NZDUSD 17th – 21ST Dec, 2018 📈📊💰

The kiwi has been on a losing streak and this pair has been on a significant downtrend. We see a break of the support and the price has come back to retest the price. The doji forms followed by the bears who have dominated the market. Are we going to see a continuation? We will let the price give us more light in the behavior of this pair in the forthcoming days.

CURRENCY PAIR: NZDCAD 17th – 21ST Dec, 2018 📈📊💰

This pair has been on a strong uptrend and the momentum of this pair is prone to exhaustion. The quick bullish move has definitely started showing signs of weakness as the market reaches the resistance zone. The pair is indecisive and the bears seem alert. The market main trend is bearish and this is a classic pullback to retest the break of this support. Nevertheless we will watch out for the price to guide us further in order to pick a bias.

CADCHF(10th December to 14th December)

Analysis: A close look at this pair reveals that prices are have been consolidating and forming a symmetrical triangle. This is a strong indication of an eminent break-out of prices. Therefore, we should expect a breakout on either side of the triangle, that is either to the upwards or to the downside.

Summary: At this point we do not know the direction of the anticipated break-out, we therefore sit and wait for a clear price action signal after prices have broken out to decide on our bias on this pair, that is whether to go long or short.

EURAUD (10TH December to 14th December)

Analysis: Today we revisit the pair of EURAUD that we covered in our weekly analysis of the (26th November to 30th November). Recalling from our previous analysis of the pair, we take a look at how the market has traded since then, and how the pair is likely to trade this week, and the following few weeks.

From the charts we see that prices momentarily broke below the support of the prevailing ascending channel, only to rally up and end the week back in the channel. Furthermore, we have a confluence in that there is an imminent support/resistance level indicated by the horizontal. We will be watching this pair closely for precision at how prices will behave at this level, whether prices will move up past the level or if the pair will respect the resistance line and bounce back downwards.

Summary: We will be watching for price action signals/patterns to guide us on the direction that the pair will be trading, in order to pick the direction of our bias.

NZDUSD (KIWI) (3rd December to 7th December)

Weekly Analysis NZDUSD: We covered the analysis of this pair about three weeks ago. This week we revisit the pair, where prices reveals that the pair is trading at a significant weekly resistance level, which was previous support level. We are not sure if the pair will respect this level and reverse, and therefore we will be watching for price action patterns to confirm our bias.
Summary: This week and the following weeks we will be keen to watch if the pair will respect the near-term resistance level and reverse, or if the bulls will have enough power to push the pair up to the major resistance zone. We don’t open positions yet.